The main purpose of the study is to demonstrate the applications of the epidemiological wavelength method developed to calculate the size of COVID-19 pandemic through simulation and to expand its use. By using the epidemiological wavelength method, decision makers can manage the pandemic processes easier and faster, especially by estimating COVID-19 pandemic size.
The paper on the developed epidemiologic wavelength method was published in 2023 in Public Health, the official scientific journal of The Royal Society for Public Health in the UK. The SSCI academic indexed journal is ranked Q1 in the field of public health. The article can be accessed from the source below.
- Bulut, T., & Top, M. (2023). Estimation of the size of the COVID-19 pandemic using the epidemiological wavelength model: results from OECD countries. Public Health, 220, 172-178. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2023.05.013.
For easy understanding of epidemiologic wavelength method, the applications are given through simulations created on Microsoft Excel. The epidemiological wavelength equation (We) is given below. With the equation below, size of the epidemic can be calculated at inter-country level.
If intra-country epidemic sizes are to be calculated, the human development index (hi) parameter is subtracted from the denominator of the epidemic wavelength equation (We). In this case, the equation will be as follows. The areas to be calculated in the calculation of the size of the epidemic within the country should be understood as regional, state, province, district level.
The parameters used in epidemiologic wavelength size equation are described in Table 1.
Table 1: Parameters Used in Epidemiologic Wavelength Method
Source: Bulut T, Top M. Estimation of the size of the COVID-19 pandemic using the epidemiological wavelength model: results from OECD countries. Public Health.
In alculation of in-country epidemic size, synthetic data were assigned to parameters using repeated random sampling (RSS) method and simulations were created in Microsoft Excel. The reason for creating the simulation study in Microsoft Excel environment is that Microsoft Excel has a widespread usage area and it is desired to show formula interactions in Microsoft Excel environment. In this way, it is aimed to increase comprehensibility and use of the method. The methods followed in assigning random values to the parameters in the calculation of the epidemic size at inter-country level are given below:
- The first _date parameter in Microsoft Excel: The first date parameter indicates the date when the outbreak first occurred. Depending on the purpose of the research, the first date can be started from whichever time period is desired to be addressed. The dates “01.01.2022” and “01.01.2023” and random dates between those dates were generated for that parameter.
- The last _date parameter in Microsoft Excel: The last date parameter indicates the last date when cases occurred in the outbreak. Depending on purpose of research, the last date can be determined from whichever time period is desired to be addressed. For this parameter, “03.03.2023” and today dates and dates between those dates were generated randomly.
- Number of days since the first case reported (tc): No random value is generated for this parameter. This parameter is calculated with the formula last _date-first _date +1.
- Number of confirmed cumulative cases (cc): The cumulative number of cases between and including 100-50,000 was randomly assigned to that parameter.
- Population density (persons per square km) (pd): Population per square kilometer within and between 250-1000 was randomly assigned to that parameter and multiplied by values generated between 0-1.
- Human Development Index (hi): The Human Development Index (HDI), which takes values between 0 and 1, is published by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). Since Human Development Index parameter takes values between 0-1, values between 0-1 are randomly assigned to that parameter in the simulation.
On the other hand, the methods followed in assigning random values to the parameters in estimation of epidemic size at in-country level are given below:
- The first _date parameter in Microsoft Excel: The first date parameter indicates the date when the outbreak first occurred. Depending on the purpose of the research, the first date can be started from whichever time period is desired to be addressed. The dates “01.01.2022” and “01.01.2023” and dates between those dates were generated randomly for that parameter as at inter-country level.
- The last _date parameter in Microsoft Excel: The last date parameter indicates the last date when cases occurred in the outbreak. Depending on purpose of research, the last date can be determined from whichever time period is desired to be addressed. For this parameter, the dates “03.03.2023” and today and dates between those dates were generated randomly for that parameter, as at inter-country level.
- Number of days since the first case reported (tc): No random value is generated for this parameter. This parameter is calculated with the formula last _date-first _date +1.
- Number of confirmed cumulative cases (cc): The cumulative number of cases between and including 10-5,000 was randomly assigned to that parameter.
- Population density (persons per square km) (pd): Population per square kilometer within and between 250-1000 was randomly assigned to that parameter and multiplied by values generated between 0-1.
You can download the epidemiological wavelength simulation prepared as xlsx extension in Microsoft Excel environment as normal design and compact design from the links below.
Normal Design
Compact Design
In summary, this study aims to simulate the epidemiological wavelength method used to measure the size of epidemics, to provide information about the method and to contribute to the academia and field workers who will use the method.
We hope it will be useful.
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You can cite the following studies as examples to refer to this study.
- Bulut, T. (2023). Simulation of the Epidemiological Wavelength Method. URL: https://tevfikbulut.net/epidemiological-wavelength-method-simulation/
- Bulut, T., & Top, M. (2023). Estimation of the size of the COVID-19 pandemic using the epidemiological wavelength model: results from OECD countries. Public Health, 220, 172-178. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2023.05.013.
Note
- It can not be cited or copied without referencing.
References
- Bulut, T., & Top, M. (2023). Estimation of the size of the COVID-19 pandemic using the epidemiological wavelength model: results from OECD countries. Public Health, 220, 172-178. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2023.05.013.
- Bulut, T. (2023). Epidemiyolojik Dalga Boyu Yöntemi Simülasyonu. URL: https://tevfikbulut.net/epidemiyolojik-dalga-boyu-yontemi-simulasyonu/
- Microsoft Corporation. (2018). Microsoft Excel. https://office.microsoft.com/excel